The seven days given by the Ruling Party MLAs is now over and it is on the basis of the demands that COCOMI suspended its sit-in protest at Nupi Keithel that caused a ruckus between some vendors and the organisers. No demand has been fulfilled except the handing over of the cases related to the Jakuradhor Massacre to NIA and initiating combing operation in and around Jakuradhor. Combing operation now by security forces in the area will not yield result as the perpetrators would have moved away.
There is even a news circulated in the social media that one “Commander” injured in the incident is treated at a hospital in Aizawl and if this is true, when an injured persons can be shifted to Aizawl, the able bodied must have withdrawn either to Pherzawl or Churachandpur Districts or even to Assam or Mizoram. But it is confirmed that the perpetrators are non-locals coming from distant places, though they are from Hmar community. There is lack of clarity as to why the Meitei and the Hmar in Jiribam is engaging in conflict as Manipur is the only state where a Hmar can be a Hmar MLA while in Mizoram it is only Mizo MLA.
In fact Hmar People Convention came into being in 1988 demanding a separate District Council for the Hmar in Mizoram like that of Bru, Lai, etc. Erstwhile Churachandpur district was the safe haven of the HPC and when an understanding was reached with the Mizoram Government, those who oppose continues the armed struggle as HPC-D. The economy of the Meitei and Hmar was so intertwined in Jiribam that any conflict will hit both communities, the Hmar probably more.
Autopsy reports of some of the six abducted and murdered have surfaced indicating the brutality of the murders. Even resorting to stabbing a small kid before killing by gun-shots and the killing of an 8 month old toddler indicate the psychopathic nature of the perpetrators. Once the CRPF retaliated, those who had abducted must have murdered the six almost immediately and their bodies thrown in the Jiri river where these floated down till it reaches the Barak river.
In this incident on the next day, one particular security agency tried to give a twist by claiming that the abduction and killing was the handiwork of Meitei with a view to expand the conflict in Jiribam. But their lies were exposed by the claims from the Hmar and even MLAs. Certain agencies in their desire to help certain groups are making atrocious claims without any evidences but their lies were immediately called out but that seem not to deter them. They do not seem to realise that their credibility is now seriously questioned and may ultimately go; much to the disadvantage of the force.
The recent findings of NIA investigating the arms smuggling case in Mizoram that Solomona, the main accused along with others were smuggling sophisticated arms from Myanmar for supply to their cognate tribe members in Manipur to fuel the crisis in Manipur. This makes one to infer that that there is support from across the border in fuelling the crisis in Manipur and that the next target will be Mizoram and thence to other North-eastern states, thereby jeopardising the security of the country. This information must force the intelligence and security agencies that were helping the KNA-B to have a rethink and review on its approach.
One understands the help it provides for their help in containing the Naga and Meitei Insurgent groups but when the “friend” has a bigger game-plan to threaten the security of the country, the “friend” will have to turn into an “enemy”. Though the Naga and the Meitei insurgent groups are also demanding sovereignty, some of them are talking with the Government of India though most Meitei led insurgent groups are yet to come to the table.
But when the balance is weighed, the worst will be from the Kuki-Chin group and India need to shift its policy. Once support to the KNA-B is withdrawn, they will lose their ability to sustain itself in the Kabaw valley and can operate only to the south of Tamu, as most of the other communities settled in this region are inimical to the Kuki. Even the use of the term Kuki in their organisation is surprising as in Myanmar, the term Kuki is unrecognised and they are known as Chin, and thus the name itself hints that the creators of this group are India based.
The targeting of Senjam Chirang, Senjam Khunou and Koutruk in Imphal West district and Thamnapokpi and surrounding areas in Imphal East district will perhaps continue because of earlier land conflict between the three IW villages and Leilon Vaiphei Village over Haraothel and Haraoching and between Thamnapokpi and Saibol Kuki village. For Leilon Vaiphei there is a contest from Konsakhul Naga village. There are court cases but settlement through the legal system is unlikely in the near future and there is also the example of Seijang winning a legal battle over a tract of land over Sailen Tangkhul village in Imphal East district. Those areas that was a part of the Valley Forest Reserve as declared by the then Darbar of Manipur has bestowed the right to the villages in the valley and when this declaration was made there was no settlement within these areas.
The re-imposition of AFSPA in the jurisdiction of the police stations of Jiribam, Moirang, Sekmai, Lamshang, and Lamlai in the valley districts and Leimakhong in the hill district points to only one thing and that is operations by the central security forces in the areas under these police stations. The Central Security Forces in their desire to be seen as neutral in this crisis seem reluctant to conduct operations in only those areas under AFSPA, that is in the hill areas, and the re-imposition indicate that combing operations is likely in both the hill and valley areas in the major conflict areas.
As most of the firing now starts from the hills, if combing operations were conducted in those areas and bunkers erected dismantled, the skirmishes would have been controlled. But politics overtook other aspects and the facade of maintaining neutrality seems to take precedence. Combing operations may not yield much result in terms of apprehension of arms and men as once it starts, armed persons will move out of these areas and the operation may need to cover much larger areas, which is not possible even with the available manpower.
Reports was circulated that a senior police officer who remain incognito is doing the rounds that those arms seized from the 10 Hmar militants killed in Jakuradhor, include those looted from the police armoury in Imphal. There is also a claim of the apprehension of one Meitei insurgent along the Myanmar border with an INSAS rifle. Both these incidents, however, do not prove the narrative that arms looted have been sold off in the illicit arms market in large quantities. Looting of arms does not happen only in the valley but substantial number was also looted in the hills.
There were even claims in Bangladesh that arms looted in Manipur had reached there. All these, however, do not prove that large number of weapons looted from police armoury had entered the illicit arms market, though there have been reports now and then of looted arms being sold off to the highest bidders. Many who had looted the arms have joined one or the other insurgent groups. During the time of looting there have been rumours that some unscrupulous persons had joined in the looting to sell off the arms and ammo to the highest bidder, but the number is not that large.
What may happen to Manipur? For the Kuki they will prefer to continue the crisis as if normalcy returns, their demands may be kept under cold storage. For the political leadership also they will be keen to continue the crisis as if normalcy returns there may be major overhaul. But the common people are at the receiving ends, with the economy in tatters. The common people among the Kuki have no say and they have to follow the diktats.
For the Meitei, they will be in a confused state. Some will demand roll back of the re-imposition of AFSPA, some will demand change in the political leadership, some will insist that the political leadership cannot resign, some will try to close all central government offices, especially those located in hired buildings in residential areas, some will demand opening of mobile internet and opening of educational institutions, so on and so forth. If the Meitei wants to have their voice heard, there need to be coordination. If a rally is proposed, it should be all across the central valley at the same time. If sit-in protest is held it should be at all places at the same time, etc. Disparate moves only clutter the demands, hence unheard.
(The views expressed are personal)
